Mtg Card Chance Calculator Excel

This MTG Card Chance Calculator helps you determine the probability of drawing specific cards from your Magic: The Gathering deck. Whether you're preparing for a tournament or just want to analyze your deck's performance, this tool provides quick and accurate results.

How to Use This Calculator

Using this calculator is simple:

Enter the total number of cards in your deck
Specify how many cards you want to draw
Indicate how many of those drawn cards should be the specific card you're interested in
Click "Calculate" to see the probability

The calculator will show you the exact probability percentage and display a chart showing the probability distribution.

Formula Used

The probability of drawing exactly k specific cards in n draws from a deck of N cards is calculated using the hypergeometric distribution:

P(X = k) = [C(K, k) × C(N-K, n-k)] / C(N, n)

Where:

N = Total number of cards in the deck
K = Number of specific cards in the deck
n = Number of cards drawn
k = Number of specific cards drawn
C(a, b) = Combination function (a choose b)

This formula accounts for the fact that cards are drawn without replacement, which is typical in Magic: The Gathering gameplay.

Worked Example

Let's say you have a deck of 60 cards with 4 copies of a specific card. You want to know the probability of drawing exactly 2 of those specific cards in a 7-card hand.

Using the formula:

P(X = 2) = [C(4, 2) × C(56, 5)] / C(60, 7)

Calculating each combination:

C(4, 2) = 6
C(56, 5) = 1,820,872
C(60, 7) = 20,058,300

So, P(X = 2) = (6 × 1,820,872) / 20,058,300 ≈ 0.0548 or 5.48%

This means there's about a 5.5% chance of drawing exactly 2 of your specific cards in a 7-card hand from this deck.

Using in Excel

You can use this calculator's logic in Excel with the following formula:

=COMBIN(K, k) * COMBIN(N-K, n-k) / COMBIN(N, n)

Where:

K is the number of specific cards in your deck
k is the number of specific cards you want to draw
N is the total number of cards in your deck
n is the number of cards you're drawing

Note that Excel's COMBIN function uses 1-based indexing, so you may need to adjust your inputs accordingly.

For a more complete Excel solution, you can create a data table with all possible values of k and see the probability distribution for your specific deck.

FAQ

What's the difference between this calculator and the one in the MTG Arena app?

The MTG Arena app provides a simplified version of this calculation, while this calculator gives you more control over the inputs and shows you the complete probability distribution. You can also use this calculator's results to create your own Excel models.

How does this calculator handle sideboard cards?

This calculator assumes you're drawing from your main deck only. If you want to include sideboard cards, you'll need to adjust the total number of cards in your deck accordingly.

Can I use this calculator for Commander decks?

Yes, you can use this calculator for any MTG deck format. Just make sure to enter the correct numbers for your specific deck composition.