Moores Law N Months Halve Calculator

Moore's Law is an observation about the exponential growth of computing power. This calculator determines how many months it takes for computing power to halve based on the original Moore's Law prediction of doubling every 18 months.

What is Moore's Law?

Moore's Law, formulated by Gordon Moore in 1965, states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years. This observation has driven the semiconductor industry for decades, leading to the exponential growth of computing power we see today.

Key Points

Original prediction: doubling every 18 months (later refined to 2 years)
Drives the exponential growth of computing power
Has been accurate for over 50 years
Shows that computing power increases exponentially over time

The law has been remarkably accurate, though it's important to note that it's not a physical law but an empirical observation. The doubling time has varied over the years, but the exponential trend remains consistent.

How to Calculate

The calculation is based on the exponential growth of computing power. The formula to determine how many months it takes for computing power to halve is:

Formula

months = (log(2) / log(1 + (growth rate / 100))) * 12

Where:

months - Number of months to halve computing power
growth rate - Annual growth rate of computing power (default 50% for Moore's Law)
log - Natural logarithm function

The calculation uses the natural logarithm to determine the time it takes for the computing power to reduce to half its original value, given a constant annual growth rate.

Example Calculation

Let's calculate how many months it takes for computing power to halve if the annual growth rate is 50% (the original Moore's Law prediction).

Example

months = (log(2) / log(1 + 0.5)) * 12 ≈ 1.4427 / 0.6931 * 12 ≈ 24 months

This means that with an annual growth rate of 50%, computing power will halve approximately every 24 months (2 years), which matches the original Moore's Law prediction.

Moore's Law Halving Times
Annual Growth Rate	Halving Time (Months)	Halving Time (Years)
50%	24	2
40%	30.5	2.5
30%	40.2	3.4
20%	69.3	5.8

FAQ

What is the original Moore's Law prediction?: The original prediction was that computing power would double every 18 months, which later became known as doubling every 2 years.
Is Moore's Law still accurate today?: While Moore's Law has been remarkably accurate for decades, the rate of improvement has slowed in recent years due to physical limitations in semiconductor manufacturing.
How does the growth rate affect the halving time?: A higher growth rate results in a shorter halving time. For example, a 50% growth rate gives a 24-month halving time, while a 20% growth rate gives a 69.3-month halving time.
Can I use this calculator for other exponential growth scenarios?: Yes, you can use this calculator for any scenario involving exponential growth, not just computing power.