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Magic Draw Card Proability Calculator

Reviewed by Calculator Editorial Team

This calculator helps you determine the probability of drawing specific cards from your Magic: The Gathering deck. Whether you're planning a tournament deck or just curious about your odds, this tool provides quick and accurate results.

How to Use This Calculator

Using this probability calculator is simple:

  1. Enter the total number of cards in your deck
  2. Specify how many copies of the card you want to draw exist in your deck
  3. Select how many cards you're drawing from your deck
  4. Click "Calculate" to see your probability

The calculator will show you the probability of drawing at least one copy of your desired card in your hand, expressed as a percentage.

Probability Basics

Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur. In the context of Magic: The Gathering, we're interested in the probability of drawing specific cards from your deck.

The basic formula for calculating the probability of drawing at least one specific card is:

P = 1 - ( (C - c) / C )^n Where: P = Probability of drawing at least one desired card C = Total number of cards in the deck c = Number of copies of the desired card in the deck n = Number of cards being drawn

This formula works by first calculating the probability of not drawing any desired cards, then subtracting that from 1 to get the probability of drawing at least one.

Magic Card Probability

In Magic: The Gathering, card probability is crucial for deck building. A high probability of drawing your key cards means you'll be able to cast them more often, which can lead to better game outcomes.

Factors that affect card probability include:

  • Number of copies of the card in your deck
  • Total number of cards in your deck
  • Number of cards you draw each turn
  • Whether you're drawing with or without replacement

Note: This calculator assumes you're drawing without replacement, which is typical for Magic: The Gathering games. Drawing without replacement means each card drawn is not put back in the deck.

Example Calculations

Let's look at a couple of examples to see how the calculator works.

Example 1: Common Card

Suppose you have a deck with 60 cards, and you have 4 copies of your key creature. You're drawing 7 cards (a standard hand size).

Using the formula:

P = 1 - ( (60 - 4) / 60 )^7 P = 1 - (56/60)^7 P ≈ 1 - 0.933^7 P ≈ 1 - 0.606 P ≈ 0.394 or 39.4%

So, you have about a 39.4% chance of drawing at least one copy of your creature in your opening hand.

Example 2: Rare Card

Now imagine you have a deck with 60 cards, but only 1 copy of a rare card you want to draw. You're still drawing 7 cards.

Using the formula:

P = 1 - ( (60 - 1) / 60 )^7 P = 1 - (59/60)^7 P ≈ 1 - 0.983^7 P ≈ 1 - 0.897 P ≈ 0.103 or 10.3%

In this case, you have about a 10.3% chance of drawing the rare card in your opening hand.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate is this probability calculator?

This calculator uses standard probability formulas to provide accurate results. The calculations assume you're drawing without replacement, which is typical for Magic: The Gathering games.

Can I use this calculator for any Magic: The Gathering deck?

Yes, this calculator works for any Magic: The Gathering deck. Simply enter the total number of cards in your deck, how many copies of your desired card you have, and how many cards you're drawing.

Does this calculator account for mulligans?

No, this calculator only calculates the probability of drawing specific cards in your initial hand. It doesn't account for mulligans or subsequent draws.

How can I improve my chances of drawing key cards?

To improve your chances of drawing key cards, consider adding more copies of those cards to your deck, reducing the total number of cards in your deck, or using cards that help you find specific cards in your library.